Reverse DCF & Intrinsic Value Calculator
Reverse engineer what the current stock price implies about future cash flow growth · EOD close on 05 Nov 2026.
Interactive Reverse DCF & Intrinsic Value Calculator
Inversion Valuation ModelWhat annual cash flow growth is the market pricing into MSFT at $537.74?
Growth in latest fcf needed to justify $537.74 at a 9% hurdle & 20x exit.
3-year compound growth in free cash flow (annual reports).
At +4.0%/yr growth · Price $537.74
At $537.74, the market is pricing in +18.0% a year of growth in latest fcf for the next 10 years, versus +4.0% a year delivered over the last 3 years. The price asks for more growth than the base case assumes — expectations are demanding. Using +4.0%/yr (historical growth, capped at 25%), fair value is $178.28 (-66.8% vs price).
Adjust Valuation Assumptions & Hurdle Rates
5x5 Valuation Sensitivity Matrix (Fair Value per Share vs Hurdle & Exit Multiple)
| Discount Rate \ Multiple | 14x | 17x | 20x | 23x | 26x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7% Hurdle | $167.59 -68.8% | $187.96 -65% | $208.32 -61.3% | $228.68 -57.5% | $249.05 -53.7% |
| 8% Hurdle | $155.48 -71.1% | $174.03 -67.6% | $192.59 -64.2% | $211.14 -60.7% | $229.70 -57.3% |
Unlock Full 5x5 Valuation Sensitivity Matrix for MSFT
Explore intrinsic values across 25 combinations of discount rates (10%–14%) and exit multiples (14x–26x), plus export the full 10-year projected cash flow model.
How Reverse DCF Works: The Inversion & Intrinsic Valuation Framework
1Why Normal DCFs Fail
Traditional DCF models depend heavily on guesswork: an analyst assumes 18% growth and gets ₹2,200, while another assumes 12% and gets ₹1,400. In reality, garbage in equals garbage out.
2The Power of Inversion
Reverse DCF inverts the question: Instead of guessing the future, we ask: “Given today's price, what Free Cash Flow growth is the entire market collectively pricing in?”
3Evaluating Margin of Safety
If the market prices in 14% growth while the company has historically delivered 18%+ with high ROCE and low debt, an investor enjoys a clear, quantifiable margin of safety before making a transaction.